Antonelli is leading F1’s title hunt, but is he quicker than Russell?

It was wholly unsurprising that George Russell was marked because the bookies’ favorite for the 2026 System 1 title earlier than the season had even begun, given Mercedes’ performances in pre-season testing. 

Few may agree on the anticipated order after that: some mixture of Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri lined the second and third locations within the pre-season predictions, and a few bookmakers had even thrown Fernando Alonso into the combination among the many favourites. 

Kimi Antonelli, in the meantime, was by no means actually within the dialog. But he now stands earlier than us with a nine-point championship lead, with two victories to Russell’s one. And certain, Russell has endured misfortune up to now within the opening rounds, however Antonelli’s performances recommend that the Italian teen is nice worth for his early lead.

When Antonelli landed in F1 final yr, he was accosted by hype and doubt in equal measure. Mercedes needed to stroll a tough tightrope in managing expectations; the Silver Arrows anticipated its long-time prospect to be a possible championship winner sooner or later, however maintained its need to maintain the early strain off. The workforce needed to permit Antonelli to develop in F1’s highlight, realizing that the championship has been suffering from title-winning diamonds who had been by no means adequately extricated from the tough. 

Though Russell stays the favorite, Antonelli has been a lot nearer to him than anticipated. However simply how evenly matched are they, and which driver is quicker? Let’s have a look – the caveat being that 2026’s pattern dimension is just not significantly intensive for the time being.

One-lap tempo: Russell has a slender edge

Russell’s qualifying benefit over the previous three rounds equates to a few tenth general

Picture by: Clive Mason / Getty Photographs

Because it stands, the 2 Mercedes drivers are usually not too distant from one another in any respect. The best means to have a look at comparable one-lap tempo lies in supertimes, through which one takes the quickest lap set by a driver and compares it as a proportion to the outright quickest time. 

In Australia, Russell took pole with Antonelli just below 0.3s away, contributing to a 0.373% hole between the 2. And, whereas Antonelli took pole for the Chinese language Grand Prix (helped by Russell’s mechanical points throughout Q3), the dash qualifying instances had been quicker. Right here, Russell was once more clear by a smidgen beneath 0.3s, this time a 0.313% distinction. Antonelli’s pole in Japan was by an identical margin, placing him 0.336% away from his extra skilled team-mate.

General, Russell’s distinction to the theoretical greatest (100%) time stands at 0.112%, whereas Antonelli is away from the theoretical 100% time by 0.230%. Assuming a very best lap of a 1m30.000s, Russell would log a 1m30.101s versus Antonelli’s 1m30.207s. That is a wafer-thin 0.106s margin, one that may very simply be overcome by a touch higher nook exit or a few miles per hour prime velocity down a straight.

Race tempo: Antonelli forward by lower than a tenth per lap

Measuring the outright race tempo between the 2 drivers is made barely tougher, as each Mercedes drivers have discovered themselves throughout the pack on the opening laps. Iffy begins have been a persistent downside and it seems to be endemic to the workforce; not even the Mercedes-powered McLaren outfit struggled fairly a lot off the road in Japan (though it hasn’t typically obtained to that time over the course of 2026…).

What we are able to do is evaluate race stints the place each drivers had been in clear air. That guidelines out a lot of Japan, since Russell spent most of his afternoon dicing with McLarens and Ferraris, however we are able to have a look at the 2 stints in Australia and China when the 2 automobiles had both cleared the remainder of the sector, or had sufficient of a niche to be unaffected by the automobiles in entrance. From lap 20 in Australia, the VSC intervals had been out of the best way and the Ferraris (but to pit at this level) had been far sufficient forward, whereas this solely applies in China as soon as Russell had moved into second on lap 29.

Within the case of the interval between lap 21 and the tip of the race in Australia – after eradicating laps 33 and 34, which overlapped with a VSC – Antonelli was averaging 1m22.958s instances, with Russell working to a 1m23.057s common. Throughout these laps, Antonelli was 3.543s quicker than Russell general, which equates to about 0.1s of a second per lap.

Antonelli vs Russell, 2026 Australian GP laps between L21 – L58

We’ll take China from lap 30, the primary ‘clear’ lap with Russell away from the Ferraris. Let’s subtract Antonelli’s slip at lap 53, the place the nerves of main had maybe obtained the higher of him and yielded a Flip 14 lock-up; it’s a statistical anomaly, in spite of everything.

Antonelli has a wafer-thin race tempo benefit thus far in 2026

Picture by: Alastair Staley / LAT Photographs through Getty Photographs

Antonelli’s common lap on this interval, sans lap 53, involves a 1m35.869s; Russell’s common is a 1m35.860s. Thus, Russell went simply 0.2s quicker throughout your entire 26-lap interval, or 0.009s per lap.

Antonelli vs Russell, 2026 Chinese language GP laps between L30 – L56

With the info we’ve got accessible, there was little or no between the 2 drivers by way of efficiency throughout the opening rounds of the championship. With out the good thing about consultant simultaneous clean-air laps in Japan, we lose one other information level, however suffice it to say that Antonelli had gave the impression to be stronger general throughout the weekend. Russell’s set-up modifications forward of qualifying had been detrimental to his W17’s dealing with, one thing that he needed to deal with via the grand prix, and his misfortune was compounded when Antonelli obtained the good thing about the protection automobile. 

However luck goes each methods and, had Antonelli not slowed down after dropping the clutch chunk level initially, it is likely to be affordable to imagine that he’d have gotten away forward of his team-mate. 

In the end, we’re taking a look at a distinction between the 2 drivers of maybe round a tenth, and this may swing both means given the weekend and the strengths between the 2. But, Antonelli’s talents across the first three circuits on the calendar hadn’t been unsure; he completed within the prime six throughout all three final yr in his debut season.

The actual litmus take a look at will emerge as soon as the European season opens for enterprise. Russell has huge expertise right here, whereas Antonelli struggled to get dialled in over the summer time months due to Mercedes’ swap to an anti-lift suspension bundle that eliminated the then-rookie’s consolation with the automobile. 

If Antonelli is to develop into F1’s youngest-ever champion and be part of tennis star Jannik Sinner in headlining Italy’s present wave of younger sporting expertise, then he is obtained some demons in Europe to exorcise. Russell, in the meantime, should step up and assert his authority as Mercedes’ senior driver if he is to utilize his greatest alternative but. There’s nearly nothing between them because it stands.

Russell and Antonelli stand shoulder to shoulder…for now

Picture by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Photographs through Getty Photographs

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– The Autosport.com Staff